Great Leap Forward: The Sequel

Consider this, in June of 2007 the first iPhone was sold. Just 9 years ago we didn’t have the “app store,” but recently the 1 billionth iPhone was sold.  In one decade, we went from a crazy guy named Steve Jobs talking about the iPhone, to the iPhone being as common as any other piece of technology.

 

Conclusion: Our world is fast.

With the speed in which our society adopts and revolutionizes technology, I think our world is going to only speed up.  Sitting in a conference last year regarding IBM’s Watson technology platform, I heard a profound statement about business in the age of technology.  The presenter said something to the effect of “any business that tries to replicate Watson is going to be 10 years behind.  However, when they achieve what Watson has achieved today, they will be 50 years behind.”  The presenter was alluding to the awe inspiring power of increasing returns to scale.  Typical business models resemble decreasing returns meaning that in the beginning progress comes quick, but as you continue onward it becomes harder to achieve.  For example, think of Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt.  For him to improve his personal record 100M dash, it takes months of effort, complete dedication to the craft, and intense physical focus.  For you and I to improve our 100M, it probably requires us to go and run once a week.  Beer and pizza can still be consumed so long as we get our exercise in once every couple of days.  Because Bolt is as good as he is, it is hard to improve; on the contrary, because we aren’t that great (hypothetically), we improve easily.

Technology doesn’t adhere to this thinking.  The faster the technology, the relatively faster the next part, the faster the next, the faster the next and so on.  With increasing returns to scale, there is nearly no end in sight regarding the outcome.  However, there must be a plateau in regards to this technological progress.  Right?

I think wrong.  Unlike the single sprinter or the single business that are common with eventual decreasing returns, our global society has no bounds. Let me clarify using Google as an example. Obviously Google cannot continue to grow forever at its current pace because it already dominates the search engine market; however, subsidiaries such as the driverless car and phone can allow continued long run growth at disgusting rates.

Consider the flip side with Eastman Kodak’s history.  Kodak did not innovate; thus, the former DOW Jones Index company is now a mere blip in the world markets.  What happened?  Kodak continued to be the Usain Bolt and hit a wall where improvement was impossible.  However, companies like GE, Apple, and Google are currently pivoting their product sector to allow for continued growth at rates.  This shift from the traditional product to the new frontier allows for ever greater technological progress.  Humans eventually peak; however, humans and technology obliterate roadblocks, obstacles, and the impossibles, which paves the way for a future of continued prosperity and growth.

I think our technological world is at the cusp of a great boom.  In the history of humanity, we had a “Great Leap Forward” in which our societal progress jumped astronomically. I predict the technology-centric leap is gearing up in our legs, which will soon spring forth with another round of human progress at the level of baffling amazement.  Just like my blog title, with technology, there is no peak.